TA Update - 11 March 2015

STI (3,398.26, -0.19%) Short Term View: Sideways Resistance: 3,458.14 Support: 3,388.33 Up: Ascendas REIT, HPH Trust USD, Jardine C&C, OCBC, ST Engineering, Starhub, ThaiBev Down: Decrease across the board Hi-P (0.565, +4.63%) Short Term View: Bullish TP: 0.665 (+17.70%) Resistance: 0.58 Support: 0.54 Remarks: The counter presented an opportunity to enter as it formed a bullish engulfing candle pattern last night. Nearest resistance is at 0.58. If it is broken, the counter may go up to its 50% retracement level at 0.665. Hyflux (0.860, +1.78%) Short Term View: Bullish TP: 0.900-0.915 (+4.65-6.40%) Resistance: 0.87 Support: 0.84 Remarks: The counter presented a bullish reversal signal as it broke through the resistance level 0.85. If the next resistance at 0.87 is also broken, it would affirm its short term bullish trend to level 0.900-0.915, around its EMA50 and 50% retracement level from its last down swing. QT Vascular (0.285, +3.64%) Short Term View: Bullish TP: 0.320 (+12.28%) Resistance: 0.290 Support: 0.270 Remarks: The counter presented a bullish reversal signal as it broke through the resistance level 0.280. If the next resistance at 0.290 is also broken, it would affirm its short term bullish trend to level 0.320, around its 50% retracement level from its last down swing. SBS Transit (1.78, +1.14%) Short Term View: Bearish Resistance: 1.785 Support: 1.755 Remarks: The counter formed a bullish harami candle pattern near the support level 50% retracement. A bullish reversal is only confirmed when the counter can break the resistance 1.785 and the TP will be 1.815.

TA Credit goes to my colleague, write in to get in touch

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Happy Trading (11 March 2015)

DJIA -332.78 (17662.94) US 10-Yr Bond Yield -0.074 (2.121%) News Update: US US stocks plunged down sharply as the high expectation of Federal Reserve would raise interest as soon as June. Dollar surged would pressure down the commodities prices. On the other hand, oil prices continue to slide after Goldman Sachs mentioned in a note that US crude could drop to $40/ barrel in near term, Brent settled at $56.55/ barrel and Crude settled at $48.71. Europe European stocks further losses and closed sharply lower yesterday as selling pressure continue to increase and investors are weighing on the interest rates hike as soon as June, global oil supply glut as well as negotiation on Greece debt issue. Besides, news on Chief Executive Brady Dougan stepped down and replaced by head of Prudential, Tidjane Thiam lead to Prudential slide about 3.5% but Credit Suisse shares jumped over 8%. Greece and experts from troika of organizations including ECB, IMF and European Commission would start detailed discussions on Greeks reforms tied to its emergency financing on Wednesday. Asia Hong Kong shares ended lower as banks worries on China weak economy growth. China's consumer inflation accelerated to 1.4% upbeat market expectation yet factory prices remain in deflation which indicates that further stimulus needed. Upcoming Events: 1.30pm CNY Industrial Production, Fixed Asset Investment, Retail Sales 2.30pm EUR French Final Non-Farm Payrolls 4.00pm EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks 5.30pm GBP Manufacturing Production, Industrial Production 10.30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 11.00pm GBP MPC Member Weale Speaks, NIESR GDP Estimate 12 March 2015 1.01am USD 10-Yr Bond Auction 2.00am USD Federal Budget Balance 4.00am NZD Official Cash Rate, RBNZ Rate Statement & Monetary Policy Statement SGX MSCI SG -market extended losses on the fear of the US Federal Reserve may increase interest likely by June with immediate resistance level at 378.5 -market expected to its bearish momentum and short term downtrend remain intact, today market range within 373.5-377.5 -yesterday settlement price: 378.6 strategy: Short if stay below 377.5 tg stop 378.5 tg exit 373.5 FKLI -market jumped on US market rallied on Monday and continue its bearish momentum -market likely to gap down and further drop on the fear of the Federal Reserve rates hike and tumbled in oil prices -market expected range for today within 1755-1785 -support level: S1 1770 S2 1765 S3 1760 -resistance level: R1 1780 R2 1785 R3 1790 -yesterday settlement price: 1781 strategy: Short if stay below 1780 tg stop 1785 tg exit 1760 FCPO -CPO market ended sharply lower yesterday despite weak RM on the oil prices tumbled and weak export data as well as high level of inventories showed in MPOB data yesterday -today likely to see some profit taking activities if market continue drop down to 2200 level, today expected market range within 2195-2245 -support level: S1 2220 S2 2205 S3 2190 -resistance level: R1 2245 R2 2260 R3 2275 -yesterday settlement price: 2238 strategy: Short if stay below 2245 tg stop 2260 tg exit 2205

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Short selling

Heard of that term? Short selling in the stock market refers to selling a stock for which you hadn't bought before. Which is what the word short means. Selling something of which you are "short" of.

Why? And for what propose?

In the earlier example, the trader made a gain of $2000 from a stock that went up 2 cents. The trader relied on a strategy to find a stock that has a 98% chance of going up at least 2 cents within 3 days.

What if the trader could rely on another strategy, which is to find a stock that has a 99% chance of going down at least 2 cents within the day.

By short selling a stock,  the trader is betting that the price of the stock to move down at least 2 cents within the same day. If it did, the trader makes a gross profit of $2000 in a day. By selling 100,000 shares of a stock (which he didn't have) and wait for the stock price to dip as least 2 cents.

Because by the end of the trading day, the trader has to (mandatory) buy back 100,000 stocks to offset for the 100,000 sold earlier. It is true you can sell what you don't have because you can borrow the shares from the market but you must return to the market what you borrowed within the same day. To return the shares,  you must have the shares, to have the shares.. you must buy them.

The idea here is to buy the shares at a lower price than what you sold for and profit from the difference.

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What is 1cent to you?

In stocks, how much does a gain of 1 cent equate to? For every gain in 1 cent in your stock, it could mean a gain of $100, $500, $1000 or just $10

How can you mentally calculate your gross profit in a split second?

Easy, just multiply 1 cent by the number of shares you bought.

If you want to use $20k to buy a share at $2.3 a share, you can pick up about 8500 shares. So for you, a 1 cent gain in the stock ($2.31) is: $85, a 10 cent gain is $850 in gross profit. Same calculations for every cent down.

The actual gain or loss is after factoring in the commission charges. Which you can calculate on your own with a spreadsheet. If you need the spreadsheet for this, ask from me.

Sometimes traders like to do what's called scalping, that is they will get in and out of a position very quickly with small gains, e.g. In at 2.3 out at 2.32 (2 cent gain) because they can make up to $2000 gross profit for just that brief exposure.

It's not that they do not want a bigger gain, they want to. Just that it takes much longer time to get to 10 cents profit and a greater deal of uncertainty. Rather than to be exposed in market uncertainty they would rather realize that gain now and get in to another position riding on the next micro wave.

In the case above, the trader would have bought 100,000 shares of the stock, and that makes a gain of 1 cent worth $1000.

What was the gross cost? 2.3 x 100,000 = $230,000..  On paper but in reality, 0. Because there's a 3 day credit term. You pay for the stocks on T3, (more about T3 later).

This sounds good right, however bear in mind for every cent down it also means a paper loss of $1000.

That's why it is important to do your homework on the stock before you get into a position. Homework here refers to;

1) Fundamental Analysis on the company
2) Technical Analysis on price chart of the company
3) Global Macroeconomy basically to know what's going on in the world.

How do u get a hold of the factors above?

Books, Internet, courses, talk to Analysts and read their reports at investment banks (we have that) . Ask anybody and everybody.

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TA Update - 5 March 2015

STI (3,415.53, -0.19%)
Short Term View: Sideways
Resistance: 3,458.14
Support: 3,388.33
Up: Selected counters from different sectors such as DBS, Golden Agri, Sembcorp Marine, Starhub, ThaiBev
Down: All other counters except for CapitaLand, ComfortDelgro, Genting Sing and SPH which were unchanged.

Breadtalk (1.365, +1.11%)
Short Term View: Bullish
TP: 1.47-1.50 (+7.69-9.89%)
Resistance: 1.37
Support: 1.34
Remarks: Following up the call on 4 March, the counter confirmed a reversal signal called on 4 March as it went up 1.11% to 1.365. With this confirmation, the counter has the potential to go up to 1.47-1.50 (+7.69-9.89%) which is its 50-61.8% retracement level. Note a gap at 1.40-1.405 which may serve as a resistance level.

Ezion (1.09, +1.40%)
Short Term View: Consolidation
TP: 1.17-1.205 (+7.34-10.55%)
Resistance: 1.10
Support: 1.06
Remarks: The counter presented another opportunity to enter as last night it formed a bullish harami candle pattern. The confirmation of the pattern is when it can break the resistance level 1.10. Once 1.10 level is broken, it may continue going up until 1.17-1.205 (+7.34-10.55%) which is its 38.2-50% retracement level.

TA credit goes to my colleague, write in to get in touch

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4 Mar Close

DJIA -106.47 @ 18096.90
S&P500 -9.25 @ 2098.53
NASDAQ -12.76 @ 4967.14

STOXX EUROPE 600 +2.93 @ 390.61
FTSE  +30.11 @ 6919.24
CAC +48.10 @ 4917.35
DAX +110.02  @ 11390.38

CRUDE OIL - Apr
WTI +1.01 @ USD51.53
BRENT -0.47 @ USD60.55

GOLD Apr -3.50 @ USD1200.50

RM3.66/USD
RM5.58/GBP

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TA Update - 4 March 2015

STI (3,422.11, +0.54%) Short Term View: Sideways Resistance: 3,458.14 Support: 3,388.33 Up: Commodities (O&G, CPO, Coal, Food), property Down: Banks, Telco, Transportation, Breadtalk (1.35, -0.74%) Short Term View: Bearish TP: 1.47-1.50 (+8.89-11.11%) Resistance: 1.355 Support: 1.34 Remarks: Last night, the counter formed a hammer candle with higher volume. If it breaks the resistance of the hammer at 1.355, the counter may continue to rise to 1.47-1.50, which is the 38.2-50% retracement level. ST Engineering (3.54, +2.00%) Short Term View: Bullish TP: 3.77 (+6.21%) Resistance: 3.60 Support: 3.47 Remarks: Following up the call on 3 March, the counter confirmed a short term reversal as it broke the resistance of the previous hammer candle at 3.49. Now, it is on its way to retest the resistance level from its previous up swing at 3.60. The target of the inverted head and shoulder pattern is still at 3.77, +6.21% from its current price

TA credit goes to my colleague, write in to get in touch

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3 Mar Close

DJIA -85.26 @ 18203.37
S&P500 -9.61 @ 2107.78
NASDAQ -28.20 @ 4979.90 

FTSE -51.51 @ 6889.13
CAC -48.07 @ 4869.25
DAX -130.00 @ 11280.36

CRUDE OIL - Apr
WTI +0.93 @ USD50.52
BRENT +1.48 @ USD61.02

GOLD Apr -3.80 @ USD1204.40

CPO May +5 @ RM2378

RM3.62/USD
RM5.57/GBP

8:26 AM

Genting HK Ltd is acquiring luxury cruise line Crystal Cruises Inc from Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha of Japan (NYK) for US$550m.

TM has signed a MOU with TIME for the development and construction of a new submarine cable system dubbed the SKR1M.

MFCB has finally been given the greenlight by the Laos gov to hold the concession for a 260MW run-of-river hydropower plant in the country, 5 yrs after signing a MoU with the state-owned energy company to develop the plant.

Orient controlled by  Tan Sri Loh Boon Siew, has acquired a 90% equity interest in Sumatera-based PT Surya Agro Persada, from PT Kencana Sawit Abadi for RM98.32m.

BTM's Besut Tsuda Wood Products SB has called of the agreement to dispose its woodwaste fired cogeneration system to Khas Promosi SB for RM4.2m.

AxisREIT has proposed to split each of its existing units into 2, do a 20% placement of the enlarged base & issue new units via a unit reinvestment plan.

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Investment Event at SGX: Consumer Goods and Technology

Register here

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TA Update - 3 March 2015

Dow:0.86%
S&p: 0.61% valuetronics ( Buy) Target:SGD 0.64 Price: SGD 0.44 *Expect industrial and commercial electronics (ICE) segment with higher margin to continue to register strong growth *Net cash position with high dividend yield *60% of the business is from philips' lighting business and with philips plans to be listed, it will be a catalyst for the business. China Resources Gas (Buy) Target: HKD 25.4 price: HKD 20.2 *NDRC annouced an effective 5.7% Price cut in citygas price for non residential users *Believe that the cut will boost CR gas's margins in the short term but in the longer term, earnings are likely to reduce slightly. *The cut is milder than expected and in the long run, even if earning reduces, the volume is expected to pick up. Bangkok dusit medical services (Buy) Target: THB 24.2 Price: THB 20.9 *Core earnings rose 16.8% YoY, driven mainly from higher volume of outpatients and inpatients from its existing hostpitals * Key highlights will be its network expansion and the economy recovery in thailand *Company acquired its value chain that supply medicine and supplementary foods

TA credit goes to my colleague, write in to get in touch

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Watch "Oil rigs across south east Asia are being mothballed" on YouTube

Oil rigs across south east Asia are being mothballed: http://youtu.be/kLkVbxM-wQ8

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TA Update - 26 February 2015

STI (3,440.83, +0.09%) - 26 February 2015 Short Term View: Bullish Resistance: 3,450 Support: 3,400 Ezion (1.15, +044%) - 26 February 2015 Short Term View: Bearish TP: 1.25 (+8.70%) Resistance: 1.165 Support: 1.14 Remarks: Following up the call on 19 January, the counter reached its Inverted head and shoulder target at 23 January. Last night, the counter presented another opportunity to ride its wave as it formed a bullish harami candle pattern at the 38.2% retracement level. If it breaks 1.165, it may continue higher until 1.25 which is 50% retracement level. Global Logistics (2.57, +0.39%) - 26 February 2015 Short Term View: Bullish TP: 2.68 (+4.28%) Resistance: 2.60 Support: 2.52 Remarks: If the counter breaks 2.60 level, a consolidation triangle pattern is confirmed with TP at 2.68. Raffles Medical (3.91, +0.77%) - 26 February 2015 Short Term View: Bullish TP: 4.21 (+5.93%) Resistance: 3.92 Support: 3.86 Remarks: Following up the call on 29 January, the counter presented another opportunity for those who missed the entry at 27 January. Last night saw the formation of a bullish harami candle pattern near the triangle support. If it breaks 3.92, it may continue to go higher.

TA credit goes to my colleague, write in to get in touch

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Happy Trading (26 Feb 2015)

DJIA +15.38 (18224.57)
US 10-Yr Bond Yield -0.014 (1.972%)

News Update:
US
US stocks ended with slightly changed as market retreat on Hewlett-Packard Co. and Apple inc. led technology companies after market earlier gain in healthcare and basic materials sectors. Fed Chair Yellen reiterated the Federal Reserve's timetable for rate raise is flexible and repeated that inflation and wage growth remain too low to meet the conditions to raising key rate. On the other hand, oil prices rallied as US EIA reported weekly crude inventories rose 8.4mil barrels which were in line with Tuesday's American Petroleum Institute report of 8.9 mil barrels.

Europe
European stocks ended lower as investors continue to weigh on corporate earnings and as well as dovish tone from Yellen's second day of testimony. ECB President Mario Draghi addressed his decision to launch open-ended, expanded monthly 60 bil euro ($70 bil) private and public bond buying.
UK's FTSE Weir Group shares tumbled about 10% as engineering group warned of significant reduction in 2015 revenue.
Ukraine desperate for IMF aid amount to $17bil was pledged earlier this month yet to be released, furthermore some reports showed that Ukraine's gas supply could be turned off which created fears on the country to go bankruptcy.

Asia
Asia stocks closed narrowly mixed in the 1st day of trade even though HSBC Flash PMI showed expansion in China 1st time in 4 months rose to 50.1 from 49.7 final reading. Analysts predicting more stimulus injections to come to support growth as economic momentum remain weak.

Upcoming Events:
3.00pm EUR GfK German Consumer Climate
4.55pm EUR German Unemployment Change
5.30pm GBP Second Estimate GDP
9.30pm USD CPI, Core CPI, Unemployment Claims, Core Durable Goods Orders
10.00pm USD HPI

SGX MSCI SG
-market retreated from Tuesday's gain on Yellen's statement as no rate hike in coming couple of meetings and added dovish to the market yesterday on her reiterated her statement to House Committee of Financial Services, market ended lower yesterday with resistance level pegged at 390.0
-market expected to continue ranging and sideway in range 383.0-388.0
-support level:
S1 383.5 S2 382.3 S3 381.1
-resistance level:
R1 386.5 R2 387.7 R3 388.9
-yesterday settlement price: 385.6
strategy: Long if stay above 384.5
tg stop 383.3
tg exit 388.1
strategy 2: Short if stay below 383.0
tg stop 384.2
tg exit 379.4

FKLI
-market jumped on Yellen said no rate hike for the next few FOMC meetings and continue its bearish sentiment
-strong selling force pegged at the resistance level of 1820, market expected to move sideway to downtrend if it unable to break above 1820; market expected range between 1800-1815
-support level:
S1 1805 S2 1800 S3 1795
-resistance level:
R1 1815 R2 1820 R3 1825
-yesterday settlement price: 1810.5
strategy: Short if stay below 1815
tg stop 1820
tg exit 1800

FCPO
-market closed mixed as market jumped on soyoil worries on supply disruptions in Brazil due to the trucker strike and rains stalling harvest and retreated on further sluggish demand showed in export data and stronger RM
-market formed shooting star at resistance level of 2280, market likely to continue move lower and today expect market range within 2220-2265
-support level:
S1 2235 S2 2220 S3 2205
-resistance level:
R1 2255 R2 2270 R3 2285
-yesterday settlement price: 2246
strategy: Short if stay below 2260
tg stop 2275
tg exit 2215

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This is how the heavyweights do it

How Tong Kooi Ong is attempting to break Bank Negara and crash the RM | Exposing The Truth of Malaysians - https://malaysianexpose.wordpress.com/2015/01/28/how-tong-kooi-ong-is-attempting-to-break-bank-negara-and-crash-the-rm-2/

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24/2/15 Closing

Yellen reiterated that the central bank will be "patient" on raising interest rates for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis. Traders took that as a sign that interest rates would remain unchanged until autumn. Dow Jones rose 92.35 points (0.5%) to 18,209.19, while the S&P 500 gained 5.82 points (0.3%) The Nasdaq extended its gains to 10 straight sessions - its longest winning streak since July 2009. The Nasdaq finished up 7.15 points (0.14%) to 4,968.12

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TA Update - 25 February 2015

STI (3,437.61, +0.48%) - 25 February 2015 Short Term View: Bullish Resistance: 3,450 Support: 3,400 Hi-P (0.620, +0%) - 25 February 2015 Short Term View: Bullish TP: 0.695-0.700 (+11.2-12%) Resistance: 0.625 Support: 0.600 Remarks: A reversal sign was seen on 23 Feb. If the counter breaks the resistance 0.625, it has the potential to continue to go up until 0.695-0.700, which is the 50% retracement level. ST Engineering (3.55, +3.18%) - 25 February 2015 Short Term View: Bullish TP: 3.77 (+6.20%) Resistance: 3.56, 3.60 Support: 3.53, 3.48 Remarks: Last night saw the confirmation of an Inverted Head and Shoulder pattern with target at 3.77 (+6.20%).

TA credit goes to my colleague, write in to get in touch

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